ÇETİN AY, "THE GLOBAL OIL AND FINANCE MARKET DANCE FLOOR: DJ TRUMP."

With one sentence, oil prices fall, the war ends.

Then the narrative changes, the game is reset.

The market now acts not on data, but on rhetoric.

The $120-$150 oil price range is not a fluctuation, but a clear threshold.

At this level, income erodes, life becomes harder, and the balance is disrupted.

If not managed well from here on, disintegration begins.

This situation cannot be sustained with individual measures.

Interest rates alone are insufficient.

Budget cuts are not a solution.

The exchange rate cannot be held by force.

The economy can only survive with a coherent policy.

The first issue is trust.

As uncertainty decreases, the rules work.

Policy determines the direction of the economy.

Monetary policy must be simple, clear, and consistent.

Price stability is not a preference, but a necessity.

Monetary and fiscal policies work together.

Support is kept limited and achieved by reducing resource waste.

First, price stability. Then, energy supply security.

The foreign exchange side cannot be managed by force.

Reserves are not depleted in panic.

Volatility cannot be left completely unchecked.

The aim is not to stabilize, but to keep the system afloat.

The energy bill cannot be closed domestically.

This is no longer just an economic issue, but a strategic one.

Turkey must be prepared for supply disruptions.

When oil reaches the $140-150 range, an additional burden of approximately $35-40 billion annually is created.

Above $150, exchange rate and cost pressures increase rapidly.

The real burden is felt by society.

The crisis is experienced in life, not just in the picture.

Income balance is disrupted.

Pensioners struggle. Workers are squeezed. Those with fixed incomes fall behind.

This burden is not distributed equally.

Inflation is inevitable.

The real issue is to what extent it can be controlled.

Energy costs directly affect transportation, food, and housing.

If not controlled, the problem will transcend economic boundaries.

Justice is crucial.

Support must be targeted.

Resources are directed directly to those who need it.

Income cannot lag behind reality.

Wages cannot be kept constant while inflation exists.

When real income falls, demand weakens, and the system breaks from within.

The budget requires discipline.

Waste is reduced, and resources are directed towards production.

Balance is established through production, not debt.

This cycle will not be broken as long as energy dependence continues.

Every crisis returns.

Without discipline, balance cannot be established.

Without justice, society cannot endure.

Without trust, the system does not function.

If these three are provided, the economy will survive.

Otherwise, imbalances deepen.

When the market turns into a dance floor, the issue is not war, but preparation.

Çetin Ay

BWA President